We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
|
|
|
Showing 136 to 140 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
