We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
|
|
|
Showing 626 to 630 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
