We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
|
|
|
Showing 606 to 610 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
