We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
|
|
|
Showing 56 to 60 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
