We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
|
|
|
Showing 576 to 580 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
