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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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