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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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