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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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