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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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