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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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