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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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