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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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