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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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