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Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
 Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle rather than dramatic
Coal carriers can look forward to a 26m-tonne increase in movements of the black rock by sea this year, although that increase springs off the lower baseline of pandemic-struck 2020.
Statistics from global energy analyst IEA put 2020 trade volumes at a 10% retraction, equivalent to around 150m tonnes - the largest drop ever - with seaborne coal trade hardest hit. In that context, the additional 26m tonnes predicted for 2021 is worthy of little celebration.
“The Covid-19 crisis has completely reshaped global coal markets. Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. “The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China – the world’s largest coal consumer – in the second half of the year.”
All this comes on the top of a bumper year for global coal trade in 2019, when it reached its highest ever volume at 1,445m tonnes, a 0.8% increase from the previous year, with the vast majority of coal traded in 2019 - 92% and 1,331m tonnes - moved by sea. Countering this, exports in 2021 are expected to reach 1,323m tonnes this year. “This means that export volumes will remain well below the pre-Covid volumes,” said the IEA.
“Short-lived” rebound
In terms of demand, a rebound is expected this year, and while it is forecast to be “short-lived” there is “little sign that the world’s coal consumption is set to decline substantially in the coming years”, said the IEA. If the world economy recovers, global coal demand is expected to rise 2.6% in 2021. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, but there could be surprise increases in coal consumption for the US and Europe – their first demand rises in nearly a decade.
“However, global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met,” cautioned the IEA.
The “short-lived” refers to the forecast that coal use will flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tonnes – although the IEA acknowledges that its 2025 forecast will need to be reviewed following the release of the Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan. “Renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025. And by that time, natural gas will likely have taken over coal as the second largest source of primary energy after oil,” said Sadamori.
The IEA expects the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. China and India currently account for 65% of global coal demand, which rises to 75% if Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia are included. By 2025, ASEAN will become the third-largest coal-consuming region, surpassing the US and the EU.
Changing trade patterns
In its Coal 2020 report, released mid-December, the IEA also notes that the patterns of the international thermal coal trade are shifting. Traditionally, trade was characterised by two geographic basins: the Pacific Basin, where Japan and Korea were the top importers; and the Atlantic Basin, where European countries imported most of the traded coal. South Africa, and to a much lesser extent Russia, linked the two basins in coal trade. “This no longer portrays international coal trade patterns, as the Atlantic market has separated from Asian market,” says the IEA. “For instance, in 2019, the volume of coal imports in India were almost double EU import quantities, a clear indicator of a shift to Asia and the waning of Europe in international coal markets.”
For the US, a brief surge in demand brought about by higher natural gas prices and an expected pickup in coal demand this year does not materially improve the medium term prospects for coal. The IEA points out that big US mining companies are increasingly shifting away from thermal coal for power generation and focusing on metallurgical coal for iron and steel production, changing the demand pattern.
Another factor driving 2021 uncertainty is lower imports of Australian coal by China. In mid-December, China appeared to formalise what had been an unofficial ban on Australian coal exports. Wood Mackenzie noted that the action had been “implemented very effectively”, with total coal export volumes down to 0.4m tonnes in November 2020, from a usual range of between 6m and 10m tonnes a month. Australia has asked Beijing to clarify the situation and has warned that China would be breaching its commitments under WTO membership and in relation to the free trade agreements signed between the two nations if it has ordered its state-owned enterprises to boycott Australian coal, as state media reported in December.
Bringing together all the variables on the international coal trade, the IEA still forecasts a recovery this year, but is less optimistic about medium-term prospects. It is particularly edgy about the evolution of Chinese import policies and developments in India’s indigenous thermal coal production, questioning how those developments will impact future coal trade.
By Carly Fields
Source: Baltic Exchange
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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