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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Sunday, 01 November 09
MINES REGULATION AMENDMENT BILL TO BE TABLED IN PARLIAMENT
Thaindia News reported that, A bill seeking to amend the Mines and Minerals Development Regulation Act, 1957, will be introduced in the winter sessi ...
Sunday, 01 November 09
THE COAL MOVEMENT TO INDIA FROM SOUTH AFRICA AND INDONESIA WOULD BE CONTINUE INCREASE - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com (Singapore): The BDI continued to be firm with an increase of 60 points and closed at 3,103 points.
The cape index also was firm an ...
Sunday, 01 November 09
INDONESIA ADARO Q3 NET PROFIT JUMPS ON COAL DEMAND
* Q3 net profit up 131.6 percent to 1.27 trillion rupiah
* Q3 revenue up 56.8 percent to 7.12 trillion rupiah
Reuters reported that, Indonesia' ...
Sunday, 01 November 09
PT INDIKA MAY BUY STAKES IN BHPB INDONESIA OPERATIONS
Dow Jones reported that Indonesian coal producer PT Indika Energy may buy stakes in BHP Billiton Limited's Indonesian coal operations and in local ...
Sunday, 01 November 09
ADAVALE RESOURCES MAKES COAL ACQUISITIONS IN INDONESIA
Adavale Resources Limited has entered into an agreement to acquire the rights to two thermal coal projects Tapan and Jambi in Sumatra Indonesia, hel ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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