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Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
 The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff stepped up a notch last week when a $5 trillion valued institutional investor group made up of many of the world’s largest insurers and pension schemes warned the companies they invest in not to finance, insure, build, develop or plan new thermal coal plants.
The statement came from the Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, whose members include Zurich, Allianz, Wespath and Munich Re.
The objective of the Group’s Thermal Coal Position paper is to encourage transition pathways towards decarbonisation. “Together, investors, governments and companies all have a responsibility to act on global emissions reduction. Additional thermal coal developments for energy generation are ultimately irreconcilable with the exercise of this responsibility,” the Alliance said.
The position paper is the latest in a stream of anti-coal rhetoric, putting increasing pressure on seaborne volumes through the 2020s. One recent coal casualty has been the withdrawal of investors in a South African multi-billion-dollar coal-fired power plant project, the 630 megawatt Thabametsi coal-based power plant project in the northern Limpopo province.
South Africa’s biggest state pension fund manager the Public Investment Corporation, and the Industrial Development Corporation, are no longer supporting the project, which was planned to come online in 2021. Newswire Reuters reports that the Development Bank of Southern Africa is also reassessing the project to determine if it is in line with its policy of a “just transition towards a low carbon economy”.
Falling from the peak
In the US, coal consumption has been declining since its peak in 2017 of 1.1 billion short tons. In 2019, US coal consumption totalled 590 million short tons, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, despite projected growth in natural gas and renewable energy use to generate electricity through 2050, the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2020 projects in its reference case that coal and nuclear power plants will collectively provide more than 25% of generation through 2050. End consumers and investors are pushing for that percentage to be reduced before the 30-year projection window is up.
According to data from the EIA, 121 US coal-fired power plants were repurposed to burn other types of fuels between 2011 and 2019, 103 of which were converted to or replaced by natural gas-fired plants. At the end of 2010, 316.8 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity existed in the US, but by the end of 2019, 49.2 gigawatts of that amount was retired, 14.3 gigawatts had the boiler converted to burn natural gas, and 15.3 gigawatts was replaced with natural gas combined cycle.
As the US coal-fired electric generation fleet continues to manage challenges from emission standards and low prices for natural gas, the EIA expects more of these conversions to take place in the future. The Administration has already been notified of eight planned natural gas combined cycle projects, five of which are currently under construction, which will replace existing coal plants.
Across the Atlantic, increased pressure is coming from the European Commission, which published revised emission reduction targets for 2030 in September, requiring greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by at least 55% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. This equates to a near-exit from coal by 2025, according to a report from consultant Climact and think-tank Ecologic analysing the EC’s impact assessment. The analysis found that coal could only represent around 2% of the EU’s energy mix under any scenario meeting the target, down from the previous target of 15%.
In its own impact assessment, the EC states that it expects coal to become “marginal in final energy demand in 2030, driven by reductions in industry and the declared policies in a number of Member States to reduce coal for heating purposes, as well as the required increase in uptake of renewables”. While most EU countries have set coal phase-out plans that would end its use before 2030, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, Slovenia and Croatia have not set any coal phase-out date yet.
Local law changes are also putting the dampeners on future global coal supply. For example, in Vietnam a new law on public-private partnerships (PPP) that comes into effect next year creates new hurdles for foreign coal investors. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis’ energy finance analyst Thu Vu predicts that the new regulatory challenges, coupled with market challenges, will likely prove too onerous for foreign investors in four of the 15 remaining coal power projects in Vietnam’s pipeline: Nam Dinh 1, Vung Ang 2, Vinh Tan 3 and Song Hau 2. These projects have not yet reached the commissioning phase, with contractual agreements still waiting for official sign-off.
“South Korean, Japanese and Chinese investors will likely struggle with changes brought about by the new PPP Law,” said Vu. “In provinces such as Binh Thuan where the proposed Japanese-backed Vinh Tan 3 will reside, renewable energy alternatives have been tried and tested in the past two years, with more solar and wind capacity awaiting in the pipeline. Vung Ang 2’s Ha Tinh province is also seeing a pick-up in renewable investments. Furthermore, local opposition to more polluting coal power in these areas is fierce, compromising the ability of project sponsors to mobilise local government support for their projects.”
Thermal coal imports are still expected to rise in 2020 into the Southeast Asia region as a whole – indeed, the ASEAN region may be the only remaining bright spot for coal as other regions put the squeeze on demand and production. In recognition of this the ASEAN Centre for Energy and the World Coal Association signed a Memorandum of Understanding last week with WCA chief executive Michelle Manook stressing that coal is a “critical enabler in emerging economies for economic growth, particularly those across the ASEAN region. Ms Manook added that the ASEAN region has the right to affordable sources of energy and to build their societies through the crucial role coal plays in steel and cement production – offering a pocket of hope for those in the coal broking, trading and moving industries.
Source: Baltic Exchange
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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