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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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