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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the coming winter period due to the seasonal demand for oil and its derivatives, however, such a boost will likely not suffice in positioning the market towards a recovery phase. With a second COVID-19 wave being potentially imminent, a dampening of crude oil demand may be upon us. A softened importing activity is already being observed in China (the world’s most prominent importer of crude). Chinese imports have been on a slowdown with volumes approaching end of Q1 – start of Q2 levels. Similar import tendencies have been exhibited by other leading importers due to the expectation of a second lockdown.
Tanker vessel values have come under significant pressure from the start of the year. With the exception of a few short-lived periods when a high demand for older tonnage due to storage projects was observed, crude ships have seen their values decline year-to-date. Leaving aside the Ocean tanker’s fleet, there is a scarcity of 5 to 10-year-old crude tankers on sale. There is a slightly higher supply of candidates for sale in the 13-16-year-old tanker vessel segment. The question is whether one should invest in a 15-year old crude tanker under a market that shows little signs of recovery. The present-day assumption employed by seasoned shipping veterans is that there is still a long way to go until the tanker market reaches rock bottom.
Despite potential long-run returns that an investment in a depressed market may yield, it can be argued that taking a stake in the secondhand market under the current market conditions may not be the only way forward for a shipping company. Present-day VLCC and Suezmax orderbook to fleet ratios are 8% and 9% respectively which are 5-year lows. Moreover, if we factor in demolitions to be undertaken until the end of the year, we could be looking at lower VLCC, Suezmax and crude tanker fleet growths than the already respectively subdued ones of 2.5%, 3.3% and 2.4%.
Newbuilding prices placed in Japanese, South Korean and Chinese yards with established track records have significantly decreased since the start of the year. Current VLCC and Suezmax newbuildings come at 8% and 10% price reductions respectively as opposed to January, 2020. Placing a VLCC or Suezmax order may make intuitive sense should the pressure on the tanker market continue to mount while signs of a recovery ahead remain bleak. By placing an order now, one would be allowing for a healthy time leeway for the combating of the pandemic. Despite being in the middle of a global health crisis, the shipping market still holds numerous opportunities in both the newbuilding and secondhand fronts which are awaiting to be exploited.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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