We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
 It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up for final approval this year and next. Instead of a feast of new projects, there’s a famine.
Developers, cash-strapped by the collapse in oil and gas prices, have pushed back on capital-intensive pre-FID LNG projects. Massimo Di-Odoardo, Global Head of Gas Analysis, identifies three other factors.
First, the outlook for LNG demand. We are bullish, anticipating LNG demand doubles over the next 20 years, driven by Asia’s economic growth and increasing penetration – particularly where policy supports gas over coal. Our view isn’t dissimilar to Shell’s that the LNG market grows at four times the rate of oil demand in that period.
Our base case forecasts global LNG demand grows by over 50% from 370 mmtpa in 2020 to 550 mmtpa by 2030. Allowing for projects already under development, there’s a supply gap of 102 mmtpa to be met by pre-FID projects which need to be onstream by the end of this decade.
But there are risks to our demand view. Gas demand has held up relatively well through the Covid-19 downturn, certainly compared with oil. The pace and shape of economic recovery though is far from clear and so, too, LNG demand growth in the next few years. Longer term, intensifying interest from policy makers and investors in new technologies, including green hydrogen and CCUS, casts doubt on the sustainability of demand growth.
Second, the rising influence of spot LNG prices on project economics. The traditional oil price-linked contracts and firm offtake agreements that have supported the financing of new projects are fading into history. Many projects today rely on equity lifting, with joint venture partners taking the LNG into their own portfolios. The attraction is flexible volumes that can be sold to any buyer and capture the best price.
But it also means rising exposure to spot LNG prices. Japan spot LNG prices have ranged from over US$11/mmbtu in 2018 to as low as US$2.10/mmbtu early this year, underlining the volatility and risk in running an open spot gas position.
Third, scrutiny of carbon intensity. ESG has leapt to the top of the agenda for LNG producers and buyers alike. LNG’s track record on emissions isn’t good. Inert gases including CO2 must be removed before liquefaction and typically are vented into the atmosphere. Liquefaction itself is energy intense, usually fuelled by produced gas.
In future, carbon footprint will be one factor determining how attractive an LNG project is to developers and buyers, and will influence the price it can command. New projects will have to be squeaky clean: developers will seek to electrify the liquefaction process (renewables where possible) and capture waste gases. Project economics will also be affected by carbon price assumptions.
Which pre-FID projects will fill the 102-mmtpa supply gap in 2030? First up are the mega-trains of Qatar’s low unit cost North Field East, which should be sanctioned in the coming months. This project on its own will absorb 32 mmtpa, negating the need for new supply from other sources until the late 2020s and pushing out FIDs for projects elsewhere by two to three years. Qatar believes it has another 16 mmtpa up its sleeve at North Field South that it could also develop.
So contestable demand for the rest is 70 mmtpa at best in 2030. A dozen or more projects from PNG, Australia, Mozambique, West Africa, Russia and North America, with combined capacity of more than 150 mmtpa, will be vying for their share.
The costs of integrated projects are discounted at 12%. Segmented projects – at 10% discount rate for LNG plant, 15% discount rate for upstream. Taxes are included. US Upstream assumption = 115% X Henry Hub (US$3.29/mmbtu – equivalent to average of long term H1 2020 Henry Hub forecast between 2026 and 2035) *The reference prices indicated by company logos indicate the long term prices used by companies for the purposes of valuing their assets. Assumed to be in Real terms (2020) from 2023.
How can prospective developers gain a better understanding to help support their big decisions? Wood Mackenzie’s new Global Gas Model Next Generation allows investors to analyse global gas market fundamentals and price formation; how LNG cash cost economics, coal-to-gas switching and shipping costs shape price differentials between the US, Europe and Asia markets; and how the cost stack for pre-FID projects evolves over time to meet any particular demand scenario. The model provides a framework to understand a project’s profitability under current market uncertainties.
We’ll be discussing LNG market dynamics, the investment outlook and lifecycle emissions for LNG projects at our Energy Summit (6 to 8 October 2020).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
|
|
|
Showing 756 to 760 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
|
| |
| |
|
