We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
|
|
|
Showing 901 to 905 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
