We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
|
|
|
Showing 756 to 760 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
