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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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