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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.  The Indian government ordered a lockdown in late March, which was subsequently extended until the end of June, although only for key containment zones. India’s imports grew slightly year-on-year in the March quarter, but the lockdown saw imports fall in April as buyers deferred shipments from South Africa, Indonesia and Australia scheduled for the coming month, said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
 
The fall in India’s imports was the result of a sharp contraction in demand coupled with resilient domestic output. As India went into a COVID-related lockdown in March, power demand plunged as did demand for thermal coal in electricity generation. The lockdown also affected industrial thermal coal demand, especially in the sponge iron and cement production sectors. India’s sponge iron sector uses an estimated 25-30 million tonnes of imported thermal coal each year, largely from South Africa. 
 
The report further noted, India’s domestic coal output initially withstood the impacts of COVID-19. Production from state-owned Coal India which accounts for about 80 per cent of India’s coal output reached a monthly record in March, as the miner sought to reach its production target for Indian fiscal year (April to March) 2019-20. Coal stocks at mines, industrial facilities, ports and power plants climbed to record highs in April. With excess supply mounting, the Indian government urged state-owned generation companies to use domestic coal ahead of imports. India’s Power Ministry issued a directive for power plants to cut their use of imported coal.  India’s thermal coal imports are forecast to decline sharply by over 40 million tonnes to 167 million tonnes in 2020, due to the demand-side impacts of COVID-19.  
 
According to Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report, record high inventories will take some time to run down and will weigh on India’s thermal coal imports in the short term, and India’s domestic coal production has been resilient to the disruptive effects of the virus. Domestic mining operations have been allowed to continue throughout the lockdown and coal producers have been directed to proceed in accordance with their annual production targets. Stated-owned Coal India has a production target of 710 million tonnes in Indian fiscal year (April to March) 2020–21. India’s thermal coal imports are expected to recover gradually over the next two years to reach 185 million tonnes in 2022, as the country’s electricity demand picks up and industrial activity resumes.  However, the bounce back is expected to be constrained by government targets and policy. In February 2020, India’s Minister for Coal and Mines announced India would aim to stop importing thermal coal from Indian fiscal year 2023-24 (instead relying on domestic production).  While this has been a long-term goal for India and there are considerable barriers to its achievement, the announcement signals a renewed intent to reduce thermal coal imports.
 
The Indian government’s strategy to increase domestic production has several elements. The first is to boost production by state-owned companies, particularly Coal India. Coal India has a production target of 1 billion tonnes by Indian fiscal year 2023-24, , said Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia.
 
The second strategy is to  increase production by the private sector. The Indian government has introduced a number of reforms to encourage private investment, including opening up the country’s coal sector to foreign direct investment and changing the rules governing coal mine auctions. While India will likely fall short of its production targets, government policy is nevertheless expected to propel Indian coal production higher over the next few years.  


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