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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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