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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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