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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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