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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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