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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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