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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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