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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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