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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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