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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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