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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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