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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Banchero Costa logoColombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
 
Export volumes from this South American country have steadily declined in recent years, as it is being penalized by declining coal demand in the Atlantic basin, and its distance from the more resilient Asian markets, says Banchero Costa Research in its latest report.
 
According to Banchero Costa Research, total seaborne coal exports from Colombia in the 12 months of 2019 reached 74.0 mln tonnes, -5.0% y- o-y, according to Refinitiv vessel tracking data. 
 
The majority of coal cargos from Colombia in 2019 were Capesize- sized, with 59.7% of total volumes being in stems of over 130,000 tonnes. The vast majority of Colombian coal exports are loaded on the northern (Caribbean) coast of the country.
 
Banchero Costa Research further noted that, the three main ports there are Puerto Drummond, which accounted for 28.6 mln tonnes in 2019, and Puerto Bolivar with 24.3 mln tonnes in 2019. Other ports nearby are Puerto Nuevo,  from  where  16.9  mln tonnes  of  coal were loaded in 2019, and Santa Maria with  2.7 mln tonnes. The  only  major  port  on  the western (Pacific Ocean) coast of Colombia is Buenaventura, from where 1.4 mln tonnes of coal were loaded in 2019.
 
The Aguadulce terminal at Buenaventura port has been building up operations since its launch  in  March  2017,  with facilities to load Panamax, Handymax and Supramax vessels.
 
Japan is currently the main destination for shipments from Buenaventura, with South Korea, India and Chile also receiving some coal from the port.
 
In the first 5 months of 2020, Banchero Costa Research said, Colombia  exported  at  least  25.9 mln tonnes of coal by sea. This  represents  a  net  decline  of -12.0% y-o-y, compared to the 29.5 mln tonnes exported in the same five-month period of 2019.
 
On a single-month basis, January 2020 was very fairly for that time of  the  year,  +5.2%  y-o-y  from January 2019 at 5.2 mln tonnes. In  February,  volumes  from Colombia increased further to 6.3 mln  tonnes,  +21.9%  m-o-m,  and +19.8% year-on-year. It went rather downhill from there. In March 2020, coal loadings from Colombian  ports  declined  sharply to just 5.6 mln tonnes, down -11.4% m-o-m and -20.4% y-o-y. 
 
Banchero Costa Research further said, April 2020 saw a further decline to just 4.7 mln tonnes, -15.1% m-o-m and -10.8% y-o-y.  In  May  2020  numbers  were terrible, with 4.2 mln tonnes, down -10.7% m-o-m, and -40.2% y-o-y. Volumes to Europe have really collapsed in recent years.
 
Of total exports this year from Colombia, only 6.3% or 1.6 mln tonnes were destined for Europe. This compares with 32.2% and 11.6 mln tonnes in 2017.
 
Volumes to Europe this year declined by -70.7% y-o-y. And this follows a -32.8% decline last year, and  a  -29.1%  decline  two  years ago. With this trend, we should probably expect this trend to ground to zero by 2022. On  the other  hand,  shipments to India have increased to 2.7 mln tonnes, up from just 0.2 mln tonnes  in the same period  last year. India is now the destinations of 10.3% of Colombia’s exports.


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