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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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