We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
|
|
|
Showing 861 to 865 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
