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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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