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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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Showing 486 to 490 news of total 6871 |
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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