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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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