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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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