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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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