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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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