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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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