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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
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