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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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