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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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