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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the developments regarding the pandemic outbreak and geopolitical tensions to the challenges that the sector is now facing. The considerable slowdown in momentum is evident on rates across the board, with expectations for the remainder of the year being gloomy so far.
During the past months, the steep drop in oil products demand caused by COVID-19 had been overshadowed by the developments on oil supply and prices. When Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the biggest oil producing countries, engaged in a price war back in April, they flooded the market with millions of extra barrels each day, pushing prices to unprecedented lows. At the same time, demand was collapsing. Contango markets were shaped and encouraged traders to buy and store oil on shore and on vessels like never before. Tonnage availability was tight and freight rates climbed to record levels. Indicatively, VLCC earnings reached as much as USD 280,000 per day during April, whereas the ‘clean’ products trade of LR2 and LR1 ships reached about USD 170,000 per day and USD 115,000 per day respectively.
However, since then, the market woke up to reality of poor demand for products globally, while at the same time the contango play is no longer attractive with oil prices having moved up to much healthier levels. More and more vessels used as storage are now entering the market, when at the same time refineries around the world are cutting production in order to adjust to poor demand. The effects on the freight market are already evident. At the time of this writing, VLCCs are earning USD 40-50,000 per day, LR2s about USD 20,000 per day and LR1s as low as USD 10,000 per day.
Taking into account that oil products account for about 60% of the transportation demand and that many parts of the world are still under lockdown and face travel restrictions, the outlook for the rest of the year is rather challenging. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil demand will be about 8m bpd lower in 2020 than last year. Major products’ demand such as gasoline and jet fuel are down about 17% and 60% respectively since the beginning of the year and the recovery appears to be slow. In shipping terms, this would be more than 6% decrease in demand for product tankers this year, while the fleet growth in the sector is expected to be about 0.7%.
It seems that for as long as the economic impact from the pandemic keeps unravelling, global demand will remain restricted and uncertainty will keep prevailing in the tanker market, adding more pressure to freight rates as a result.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 08 May 14
'TRIAL BY MEDIA, TRIAL BY LAW' - A REPORT FROM TRACK 1 OF BIMCO'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE DUBAI 2014
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Aiming to bring a very different type of event into their annual conference, BIMCO presented ‘Double Jeopardy &n ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- The University of Queensland
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
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