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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the developments regarding the pandemic outbreak and geopolitical tensions to the challenges that the sector is now facing. The considerable slowdown in momentum is evident on rates across the board, with expectations for the remainder of the year being gloomy so far.
During the past months, the steep drop in oil products demand caused by COVID-19 had been overshadowed by the developments on oil supply and prices. When Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the biggest oil producing countries, engaged in a price war back in April, they flooded the market with millions of extra barrels each day, pushing prices to unprecedented lows. At the same time, demand was collapsing. Contango markets were shaped and encouraged traders to buy and store oil on shore and on vessels like never before. Tonnage availability was tight and freight rates climbed to record levels. Indicatively, VLCC earnings reached as much as USD 280,000 per day during April, whereas the ‘clean’ products trade of LR2 and LR1 ships reached about USD 170,000 per day and USD 115,000 per day respectively.
However, since then, the market woke up to reality of poor demand for products globally, while at the same time the contango play is no longer attractive with oil prices having moved up to much healthier levels. More and more vessels used as storage are now entering the market, when at the same time refineries around the world are cutting production in order to adjust to poor demand. The effects on the freight market are already evident. At the time of this writing, VLCCs are earning USD 40-50,000 per day, LR2s about USD 20,000 per day and LR1s as low as USD 10,000 per day.
Taking into account that oil products account for about 60% of the transportation demand and that many parts of the world are still under lockdown and face travel restrictions, the outlook for the rest of the year is rather challenging. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil demand will be about 8m bpd lower in 2020 than last year. Major products’ demand such as gasoline and jet fuel are down about 17% and 60% respectively since the beginning of the year and the recovery appears to be slow. In shipping terms, this would be more than 6% decrease in demand for product tankers this year, while the fleet growth in the sector is expected to be about 0.7%.
It seems that for as long as the economic impact from the pandemic keeps unravelling, global demand will remain restricted and uncertainty will keep prevailing in the tanker market, adding more pressure to freight rates as a result.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 September 14
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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