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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the developments regarding the pandemic outbreak and geopolitical tensions to the challenges that the sector is now facing. The considerable slowdown in momentum is evident on rates across the board, with expectations for the remainder of the year being gloomy so far.
During the past months, the steep drop in oil products demand caused by COVID-19 had been overshadowed by the developments on oil supply and prices. When Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the biggest oil producing countries, engaged in a price war back in April, they flooded the market with millions of extra barrels each day, pushing prices to unprecedented lows. At the same time, demand was collapsing. Contango markets were shaped and encouraged traders to buy and store oil on shore and on vessels like never before. Tonnage availability was tight and freight rates climbed to record levels. Indicatively, VLCC earnings reached as much as USD 280,000 per day during April, whereas the ‘clean’ products trade of LR2 and LR1 ships reached about USD 170,000 per day and USD 115,000 per day respectively.
However, since then, the market woke up to reality of poor demand for products globally, while at the same time the contango play is no longer attractive with oil prices having moved up to much healthier levels. More and more vessels used as storage are now entering the market, when at the same time refineries around the world are cutting production in order to adjust to poor demand. The effects on the freight market are already evident. At the time of this writing, VLCCs are earning USD 40-50,000 per day, LR2s about USD 20,000 per day and LR1s as low as USD 10,000 per day.
Taking into account that oil products account for about 60% of the transportation demand and that many parts of the world are still under lockdown and face travel restrictions, the outlook for the rest of the year is rather challenging. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil demand will be about 8m bpd lower in 2020 than last year. Major products’ demand such as gasoline and jet fuel are down about 17% and 60% respectively since the beginning of the year and the recovery appears to be slow. In shipping terms, this would be more than 6% decrease in demand for product tankers this year, while the fleet growth in the sector is expected to be about 0.7%.
It seems that for as long as the economic impact from the pandemic keeps unravelling, global demand will remain restricted and uncertainty will keep prevailing in the tanker market, adding more pressure to freight rates as a result.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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