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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the developments regarding the pandemic outbreak and geopolitical tensions to the challenges that the sector is now facing. The considerable slowdown in momentum is evident on rates across the board, with expectations for the remainder of the year being gloomy so far.
During the past months, the steep drop in oil products demand caused by COVID-19 had been overshadowed by the developments on oil supply and prices. When Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the biggest oil producing countries, engaged in a price war back in April, they flooded the market with millions of extra barrels each day, pushing prices to unprecedented lows. At the same time, demand was collapsing. Contango markets were shaped and encouraged traders to buy and store oil on shore and on vessels like never before. Tonnage availability was tight and freight rates climbed to record levels. Indicatively, VLCC earnings reached as much as USD 280,000 per day during April, whereas the ‘clean’ products trade of LR2 and LR1 ships reached about USD 170,000 per day and USD 115,000 per day respectively.
However, since then, the market woke up to reality of poor demand for products globally, while at the same time the contango play is no longer attractive with oil prices having moved up to much healthier levels. More and more vessels used as storage are now entering the market, when at the same time refineries around the world are cutting production in order to adjust to poor demand. The effects on the freight market are already evident. At the time of this writing, VLCCs are earning USD 40-50,000 per day, LR2s about USD 20,000 per day and LR1s as low as USD 10,000 per day.
Taking into account that oil products account for about 60% of the transportation demand and that many parts of the world are still under lockdown and face travel restrictions, the outlook for the rest of the year is rather challenging. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil demand will be about 8m bpd lower in 2020 than last year. Major products’ demand such as gasoline and jet fuel are down about 17% and 60% respectively since the beginning of the year and the recovery appears to be slow. In shipping terms, this would be more than 6% decrease in demand for product tankers this year, while the fleet growth in the sector is expected to be about 0.7%.
It seems that for as long as the economic impact from the pandemic keeps unravelling, global demand will remain restricted and uncertainty will keep prevailing in the tanker market, adding more pressure to freight rates as a result.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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