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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the developments regarding the pandemic outbreak and geopolitical tensions to the challenges that the sector is now facing. The considerable slowdown in momentum is evident on rates across the board, with expectations for the remainder of the year being gloomy so far.
During the past months, the steep drop in oil products demand caused by COVID-19 had been overshadowed by the developments on oil supply and prices. When Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the biggest oil producing countries, engaged in a price war back in April, they flooded the market with millions of extra barrels each day, pushing prices to unprecedented lows. At the same time, demand was collapsing. Contango markets were shaped and encouraged traders to buy and store oil on shore and on vessels like never before. Tonnage availability was tight and freight rates climbed to record levels. Indicatively, VLCC earnings reached as much as USD 280,000 per day during April, whereas the ‘clean’ products trade of LR2 and LR1 ships reached about USD 170,000 per day and USD 115,000 per day respectively.
However, since then, the market woke up to reality of poor demand for products globally, while at the same time the contango play is no longer attractive with oil prices having moved up to much healthier levels. More and more vessels used as storage are now entering the market, when at the same time refineries around the world are cutting production in order to adjust to poor demand. The effects on the freight market are already evident. At the time of this writing, VLCCs are earning USD 40-50,000 per day, LR2s about USD 20,000 per day and LR1s as low as USD 10,000 per day.
Taking into account that oil products account for about 60% of the transportation demand and that many parts of the world are still under lockdown and face travel restrictions, the outlook for the rest of the year is rather challenging. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil demand will be about 8m bpd lower in 2020 than last year. Major products’ demand such as gasoline and jet fuel are down about 17% and 60% respectively since the beginning of the year and the recovery appears to be slow. In shipping terms, this would be more than 6% decrease in demand for product tankers this year, while the fleet growth in the sector is expected to be about 0.7%.
It seems that for as long as the economic impact from the pandemic keeps unravelling, global demand will remain restricted and uncertainty will keep prevailing in the tanker market, adding more pressure to freight rates as a result.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- The University of Queensland
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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